India halts onion exports — GCC Q1 cover at risk
India's DGFT prohibited onion exports on Dec 8, 2023 with immediate effect. GCC importers sourcing from Maharashtra faced ~21 days of cover before Bahrain, UAE and KSA shelves were exposed.
- Onion
- Vegetables
- Export ban
- India
What happened
India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade prohibited onion exports on December 8, 2023 with immediate effect, citing domestic price stabilisation ahead of state elections.
Exposure
Distributors holding yellow onion contracts (SKU class ONI-2104) with Maharashtra origin POs mid-route to Bahrain, Jebel Ali and Dammam lost visibility on Q1 cover within 48 hours of the notification.
What to do
Open dialogue with Egyptian (El Wadi, Naghi) and Pakistani suppliers immediately. Do not wait on a UAE-style quota exception — the 2020 precedent took 11 weeks to negotiate.
~21 days of cover before Bahrain shelves went short.
Plan for
Indian basmati MEP likely to ease pre-election
What's coming. Indian general elections April–May 2024. Historical pattern: export curbs eased 60–90 days before the vote to cool food inflation.
What to do. Renegotiate on 60-day tenors rather than locking annual rates at today's $1,200/MT MEP ceiling.
Indonesia B40 mandate to tighten CPO through H1 2025
What's coming. B35 → B40 biodiesel blending mandate effective Jan 2025. Domestic CPO absorption rises ~2M tonnes.
What to do. Lock Q1 volumes with Wilmar or Musim Mas before December. FOB likely to firm 8–12%.
Sources
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